A central limit theorem for temporally non-homogenous Markov chains with applications to dynamic programming

We prove a central limit theorem for a class of additive processes that arise naturally in the theory of finite horizon Markov decision problems. The main theorem generalizes a classic result of Dobrushin (1956) for temporally non-homogeneous Markov chains, and the principal innovation is that here the summands are permitted to depend on both the current state and a bounded number of future states of the chain. We show through several examples that this added flexibility gives one a direct path to asymptotic normality of the optimal total reward of finite horizon Markov decision problems. The same examples also explain why such results are not easily obtained by alternative Markovian techniques such as enlargement of the state space.Comment: 27 pages, 1 figur

Twitter event networks and the Superstar model

Condensation phenomenon is often observed in social networks such as Twitter where one "superstar" vertex gains a positive fraction of the edges, while the remaining empirical degree distribution still exhibits a power law tail. We formulate a mathematically tractable model for this phenomenon that provides a better fit to empirical data than the standard preferential attachment model across an array of networks observed in Twitter. Using embeddings in an equivalent continuous time version of the process, and adapting techniques from the stable age-distribution theory of branching processes, we prove limit results for the proportion of edges that condense around the superstar, the degree distribution of the remaining vertices, maximal nonsuperstar degree asymptotics and height of these random trees in the large network limit.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AAP1053 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Quickest Online Selection of an Increasing Subsequence of Specified Size

Given a sequence of independent random variables with a common continuous distribution, we consider the online decision problem where one seeks to minimize the expected value of the time that is needed to complete the selection of a monotone increasing subsequence of a prespecified length $n$. This problem is dual to some online decision problems that have been considered earlier, and this dual problem has some notable advantages. In particular, the recursions and equations of optimality lead with relative ease to asymptotic formulas for mean and variance of the minimal selection time.Comment: 17 page

Optimal Online Selection of a Monotone Subsequence: a Central Limit Theorem

Consider a sequence of $n$ independent random variables with a common continuous distribution $F$, and consider the task of choosing an increasing subsequence where the observations are revealed sequentially and where an observation must be accepted or rejected when it is first revealed. There is a unique selection policy $\pi_n^*$ that is optimal in the sense that it maximizes the expected value of $L_n(\pi_n^*)$, the number of selected observations. We investigate the distribution of $L_n(\pi_n^*)$; in particular, we obtain a central limit theorem for $L_n(\pi_n^*)$ and a detailed understanding of its mean and variance for large $n$. Our results and methods are complementary to the work of Bruss and Delbaen (2004) where an analogous central limit theorem is found for monotone increasing selections from a finite sequence with cardinality $N$ where $N$ is a Poisson random variable that is independent of the sequence.Comment: 26 page